Tropical Storm Sally threatens Gulf Coast

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Hi, everybody. Chris, Justice here with you. Rapidly changing conditions in the Gulf of Mexico is we now have Tropical Storm Sally, which formed on Saturday and is expected to become a hurricane. The latest track with this shows that the storm is going to move northwest in the Gulf of Mexico through Sunday, where it continues to strengthen to likely a Category one hurricane by Monday. Here’s the concern along the Gulf Coast is that this system is going to slow down and possibly stall out. There is very little steering currents there in the front. Well, I just north of this area kind of blocking it from moving too fast. So Monday, Tuesday into Wednesday, it really does not cover a lot of ground. So anywhere along into the east of the track of this is going to get a lot of rain for the Florida Panhandle toward coastal Alabama coastal Mississippi and then the eastern part of Louisiana, including New Orleans, could get a lot of rain with this. Now, most of our computer models keep this at a Category one hurricane. A few of our most aggressive models do show it stronger, so that’s pretty typical with those computer models, but it’s something we’re going to need to watch as faras. The trend is concerned, and the potential is there for impacts locally. Late week, with some of this moisture possibly heading our way, I’ll show you a brand new computer model on that. So the spaghetti plots here show this moving toward Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana with more of a consensus here across parts of Mississippi, possibly with a landfall on Tuesday. Let me show you the intensity models here, most of them still at that tropical storm to cat one status. But I will tell you some of our more aggressive models, the tropical models that are typically a little overdone do show this a little bit stronger is possibly a cat to So it’s a trim we’re going to watch. But right now, the overall consensus or average, is for it to be a cat one. Let me show you how this impacts us. Moving forward here at home. We’re tracking a front that’s gonna be heading our way Sunday, Monday, giving us some scattered downpours. Behind that front is gonna be some cool fall air for us that’s gonna block this from coming due north toward us rapidly. Here is Sally. Approaching the Gulf Coast here on Monday during the day gets closer and closer, possibly making landfall, maybe Tuesday afternoon. But notice this is almost 24 hours later, and the system has not moved a lot. So flooding a big concern from New Orleans to mobile to parts of Florida, that’s gonna be the concern south of there. Here it home. We’re going to cool down and clear out Tuesday, Wednesday, possibly even Thursday. Now that front fizzles out, and eventually Sally’s remnants move north and slowly. So, in fact, it’s still over parts of coastal Alabama and Mississippi on Thursday. That’s a prolonged period of rain there, and with another front coming through Thursday into Friday, this is going to then start to be pushed east. Now, how far north it gets is going to determine our impacts here, a home, whether we have heavy downpours and, of course, on the east or right side of the track, you could get severe weather, so that’s a track and a trend that we’re going to watch now. All indications are right now that this second front will allow this to push farther south, and the fact that there’s an old boundary there with that first front that’s coming our way may be the train tracks for this to kind of move along in southern Georgia, southern Alabama. That would be the overall, um, forecast as of now, from what I’m seeing. But heavier downpours are expected here at home Friday and Friday evening. Now it doesn’t like the worst of this goes south of us, and in fact, Sally could try to reinvigorate off the Southeast coast, but then it would pull away as of right now. But that’s something to watch, too, because the steering currents kind of slow down yet again. After that, we could see Sally, whether it be Sally or or, you know, parts of Sally try to regenerate their off the Southeast coast. A Zara’s rainfall totals were concerned. The track is key with this, and this is early on, so don’t so much take this to be written in stone by any means but ah, lot of rain for coastal Alabama coastal Mississippi, Panama City Beach West could see 8 to 12 inches, so flooding a big concern in these areas because it’s going to sit there for several days. So where this goes is where the flooding is going to possibly go. And as you could see right now, most of that heavy rain looks to say south of our area as were wedged in with drier air for a large part of the week. So again, it’s a trend that we’re going toe watch in the coming days. As of right now, I see the most of this beginning to move on south of our area, but it’s something will watch closely, so stay tuned to the Trans folks will keep you up to date.

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Tropical Storm Sally threatens Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Sally was inching up from Florida to the Gulf Coast and prompted a hurricane warning from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and included metropolitan New Orleans. A storm surge warning and a tropical storm warning were also in effect for parts of the Gulf Coast.Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards declared a state of emergency, and officials in the New Orleans area issued a mandatory evacuation order for areas outside of levee protection.Sally had winds around 50 mph with higher gusts, forecasters said. The tropical storm was expected to strengthen into a hurricane Monday and reach the warning area late Monday and Tuesday.Storm surge from Sally was forecast to reach dangerous levels, due in part to the tide. Up to 11 feet of water was predicted from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Borgne.A slow moving storm, Sally could produce rain totals up to 20 inches by the middle of the week, forecasters said. The system was moving west-northwest at 13 mph early Sunday. It was centered 155 miles west of Port Charlotte, Florida, and 300 miles east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Heavy rain was battering the southwest coast of Florida, the Hurricane Center said in its 8 a.m. advisory.Sally became the earliest 18th-named storm on record in an Atlantic hurricane season, besting Stan when it formed on Oct. 2, 2005, said Colorado State hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. Elsewhere, a strengthening Paulette became a hurricane late Saturday as it bore down on Bermuda, threatening to bring dangerous storm surge, coastal flooding and high winds to the territory in the coming days.Paulette had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph that were expected to intensify as the system strengthened along a curved course toward Bermuda, according to an advisory from the National Hurricane Center. The biggest threats were strong winds, storm surge, up to 6 inches of rain and life-threatening surf and rip currents. The storm early Sunday was 280 miles southeast of the territory Sunday morning.It’s the strongest in terms of winds of six disturbances the center was tracking in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico.Once a tropical storm, Rene was forecast to become a remnant low Monday. Tropical Depression Twenty was expected to strengthen this week and become a tropical storm by Tuesday, forecasters said.A low pressure system near the Cabo Verde Islands had a high chance of formation, while a disturbance in the Gulf had a low chance of formation.

Tropical Storm Sally was inching up from Florida to the Gulf Coast and prompted a hurricane warning from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and included metropolitan New Orleans. A storm surge warning and a tropical storm warning were also in effect for parts of the Gulf Coast.

Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards declared a state of emergency, and officials in the New Orleans area issued a mandatory evacuation order for areas outside of levee protection.

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Sally had winds around 50 mph with higher gusts, forecasters said. The tropical storm was expected to strengthen into a hurricane Monday and reach the warning area late Monday and Tuesday.

Storm surge from Sally was forecast to reach dangerous levels, due in part to the tide. Up to 11 feet of water was predicted from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Borgne.

A slow moving storm, Sally could produce rain totals up to 20 inches by the middle of the week, forecasters said. The system was moving west-northwest at 13 mph early Sunday. It was centered 155 miles west of Port Charlotte, Florida, and 300 miles east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Heavy rain was battering the southwest coast of Florida, the Hurricane Center said in its 8 a.m. advisory.

Sally became the earliest 18th-named storm on record in an Atlantic hurricane season, besting Stan when it formed on Oct. 2, 2005, said Colorado State hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.

Elsewhere, a strengthening Paulette became a hurricane late Saturday as it bore down on Bermuda, threatening to bring dangerous storm surge, coastal flooding and high winds to the territory in the coming days.

Paulette had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph that were expected to intensify as the system strengthened along a curved course toward Bermuda, according to an advisory from the National Hurricane Center. The biggest threats were strong winds, storm surge, up to 6 inches of rain and life-threatening surf and rip currents. The storm early Sunday was 280 miles southeast of the territory Sunday morning.

It’s the strongest in terms of winds of six disturbances the center was tracking in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico.

Once a tropical storm, Rene was forecast to become a remnant low Monday. Tropical Depression Twenty was expected to strengthen this week and become a tropical storm by Tuesday, forecasters said.

A low pressure system near the Cabo Verde Islands had a high chance of formation, while a disturbance in the Gulf had a low chance of formation.

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